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Alarm: Ice free North Pole by 2015

Polar bear near Svalbard.

Arctic Sea ice is shrinking so rapidly that by the summer in as little as four years’ time it could vanish altogether at the top of the globe. The International Energy Agency warns that climate change is irreversible by 2017.

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Polear bear eating seal near Svalbard.
Last meal? Polar bears depend on sea ice to hunt seals in the Arctic. Photo: Thomas Nilsen

Polar bears could be robbed of their hunting ground in the summer period and will hardly survive as the rising global temperature puts the Arctic sea ice in a death spiral. Polar bears totally depend on the sea ice when hunting seals.

Time is running out to limit the earth’s warming, warns the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a report issued this week. If the world’s energy production doesn’t change dramatically towards non-carbon uses before 2017 it will be harder and more expensive to meet the climate goals, says IEA in its World Energy Outlook 2011 report.

The globally agreed goal is to limit the temperature rise to 2°C. If the temperature rises more, climate changes could be irreversible. The world will lose the chance to limit global warming if it doesn’t take hard action in the next five years, reads the report.

While the International Panel on climate change (IPCC) predicts the Arctic Sea ice could be gone by the summer of 2030, Cambridge University Professor Peter Wadhams says new models indicate that it could be all gone by the summer of 2015.

- It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen, says Peter Wadhams interviewed by The Telegraph.

Earlier models have mainly focused on the extent of the Arctic Sea ice, while climate scientists this year are more focusing on the thickness of the ice. Research shows that it is less and less multiple year ice, and the thickness of the multiple year ice is also shrinking dramatically.

Last winter, the maximum extent of Arctic sea ice before the melting season started was at its lowest ever measured by satellites.

Polar bear near Svalbard.
Longer jump for the Polar bear as the Arctic sea ice is rapidly melting in the summers.
Photo: Thomas Nilsen

2010 made a record increase in greenhouse gas emissions with a 6 percent growth compared with 2009, according to the IEA report. The major global greenhouse gas emitters per capita are China, USA and India. The Norwegian emission of greenhouse gasses increased with 4,8 percent in 2010 compared with 2009, reads a report from Statistics Norway.