One year after U.S. President Barack Obama made his historic speech in Prague in which he stated America’s commitment to seek a world without nuclear weapons; Prague is again in the centre of the world’s attention regarding nuclear weapons. Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev will sign the new strategic arms reduction treaty.
The1991 START treaty expired on December 5th last year. The former treaty limited the number of strategic nuclear warheads to 2200 on each side.
Interesting for the Barents Region is that the new treaty signed in Prague Thursday will not affect the number of deployed, or in stockpile, nuclear weapons. Although the northern shore of the Barents Region is one of the places in the world with most nuclear weapons today.
The more than 160-page new treaty reads the upper ceiling of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers cannot exceed 700 with a maximum of 1550 warheads.
Today, there are seven Delta-IV class submarines in operation in Russia’s Northern fleet based on the Kola Peninsula. When not at their homeport, just west of Murmansk, the Delta-IV submarines are sailing around in the eastern part of the Barents Sea or in the Arctic Oceans.
Each of the submarines can carry 16 intercontinental missiles, bringing the number of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) to 112. Even if including the missiles possible still onboard the two remaining, but for a long time laid up, Typhoon submarines Arkhangelsk and Severstal, the total number of SLBMs in the Northern fleet are far below the maximum ceiling stipulated in the new Prague arms treaty.
In addition to the Delta-IV submarines, Russia has one new Borei-class submarine, Yury Dolgoruki, currently under sea testing, and three more of the same class under construction at the naval yard in Severodvinsk. They will all carry SLBMs.
Although the intercontinental missiles to be deployed onboard the Borei-class submarines do not work properly yet, as reported many times by BarentsObserver, it is expected that they will be sailing out in the Arctic Oceans before seven years after the new arms treaty comes into force. So, as it looks today, the numbers of submarine-based intercontinental nuclear missiles will increase in the Barents Region the years to come rather than being limited.
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There are non launch-sites for land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the Barents Region, but the heavy bombers stipulated in the arms reduction treaties cross they skies of the Barents Region frequently. Such Russian bombers like the Tu-95 and TU-160 flies from their bases in central Russia towards the north over the Kola Peninsula, out in the Barents Sea and often also further south outside Norwegian airspace. It is not always known if the planes carry nuclear weapons or not.
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Under the new arms treaty, Russia can have more such heavy bombers than today are believed to possible go airborne.
Russia also has some 3000 tactical nuclear weapons. The figures are not exactly known, but several hundreds of the tactical nuclear weapons are believed to be deployed and in storage at the Kola Peninsula. A year ago, BarentsObserver reported that some of the multi-purpose submarines within Russia’s Northern fleet again could be sailing with tactical nuclear weapons onboard.
The arms reduction treaty Medvedev and Obama signs in Prague do not mention any tactical nuclear weapons limitations.
In February, BarentsObserver reported that Sweden’ Foreign Minister Carl Bildt urged Russia to withdraw its tactical nuclear weapons from the Kola Peninsula. - Moscow should make a commitment to the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from areas adjacent to European Union member states, Bildt said.
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In March, Norway’s Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre followed up when he and four other European Foreign Ministers have signed a letter calling on NATO to include sub-strategic nuclear weapons in steps towards nuclear disarmament, BarentsObserver reported.
