A Russian orthodox priest told me lately that the western spirit is subdued and intimidated by secular conformity. The Russian spirit, on the contrary, is free as a bird. A Russian can give away all his belongings and never ask what he will live off tomorrow, the priest said. It is an overwhelming perspective, and if it is true, why are things the way they seem to be? Have the Russians lost touch with their own spirit, or are things just more complex than they appear?
One thing should be clear: In Russia, as in any other country, there is no need to be surprised if the link between ideas and philosophy on the one side and the pragmatism of daily life on the other is not evident. Just look at the last presidential elections. Most Russians I meet tell me they are fed up with the Putin regime. Not that the people I talk to necessarily represent the average Russian, but I still do wonder how Vladimir Vladimirovich can gather more than 60 percent of the votes. Again, if that number is correct, there is still no need to be surprised. There are two obvious features to take into account in today’s Russia: one, Putin has “stabilized” the country and “rebuilt” the nation state – and two, there is no alternative, the man most listened to from the so called opposition is a blogger who hardly gives interviews any more. That seems to be, mildly speaking, a very poor second choice to Putin’s superpower-base.
These past months we have seen tens of thousands of people gathering in the streets, protesting against election fake and forgery, abuse of power and the lack of fundamental civil rights. These are young people, some old ones too, but mostly young, many of them not even born by the time the Soviet Union collapsed. These demonstrators have not grown up with the iron curtain, but with Internet and Facebook. There is a whole universe of difference between them and the ones who rallied in the streets of Moscow in 1991, at the beginning of the end of the old communist empire. Young people are still influenced by their parents and grandparents who were born and raised with the cold war. But they are also part of a totally different world, the borderless, globalized planet and all of its good and bad sides.
There is no need to suspect that Vladimir Putin is a kind and gentle man. But he has, mostly, left the mass demonstrations in peace. When Putin and his entrusted men let these people shout and complain, I believe he has a plan. Perhaps this is a plan B, but it still is a plan. It might be something like this: “OK, leave them there to scream and shout for the time being. We do need to show at least the rest of the world that we are open to criticism.” What did not happen was that the demonstrators really tested the power they opposed. They did not put up tents and lit bonfires in the streets in order to stay till the day they got their will through, like they did in Georgia and Ukraine almost ten years ago. It is not very likely that their tents would have stayed up for long. There is always a limit, especially in today’s Russia. But still, the new president, Vladimir Putin, has to relate to these young people, he has no choice if he wants to be taken seriously as a nation state builder. Putin is highly skilled in the Russian craft of power-play. He knows exactly which buttons to press in order to gather the ranks. He is an expert in rethorics, he knows the language of power, he knows how to use the party structures, including his youth movement, to incorporate all ways of life, all corners of society. Still, there is something new there, which he yet does not relate so well to; it is a very simple thing, the open mind of a new generation.
Analysing the present state of Russia might not be very difficult, but answering the multimillion rubles question “what will happen now?”, is quite a different thing.
Will Putin loosen the grip, will he step aside in a couple of years if the pressure against him becomes strong enough, or will he tighten the grip even further on the civil society? How will the Russian public opinion look like in ten or twenty years? Will most people still be indifferent to politics, still claiming that there is nothing they can do? Do they still have to watch the richer getting even richer and the poor growing just more desperate?
I must admit it seems hard to imagine that Putin will give way to any sort of opposition. As long as the corruption is a strong and living feature of Russian daily life, on all levels, and greed the driving force of power, it is hard to see any change ahead. Coming to grips with corruption would mean starting from the top, and who wants to start that process? I am afraid there is too much to loose for too many, especially for those in the unofficial power structures, ranging from the secret services to the bureaucrats in millions of offices around the country. It is not just the Russian public that feels powerless, the politicians have also lost grip of things, everyone feeding the same giant, hairy corruption beast, simply in order to survive. It is out of control, and most people seem to agree that it is getting worse every day. In the middle of these shadowy power structures, Vladimir Putin seems to believe that he is the most competent ruler, and handing over power to a different clan is in his eyes very risky.
In order to keep the reins, Putin navigates according to old and well-used means, letting people believe that Russia is under constant threat of an external enemy, like the West, or China or foreign human rights organizations or a free press or whatever. Anything goes as long as its credibility can be doubted. This is internal rethoric, made for the Russian public, not for the rest of the world. Russia’s foreign policy looks in many ways quite different, although with the touch of long imperial traditions based on the fact that the country is used to being listened to and getting its will.
For Putin to rule, he will have to win every battle of power, both the official and the unofficial ones, at every single crossroads. A system not based on open democratic thinking functions only this way, and therefore it is hard to see a new chance for democracy, at least the way we consider democratic rule in the West. But then again, I might well be wrong. Keeping in mind that the most predictable feature of Russia is its unpredictability, I might be very wrong. Trying to analyse what goes on inside a Russian head has always been like solving a riddle. And if the Russian spirit really is free, we can expect some exciting years ahead. And please give me a call if you were the one who predicted the fall of the Berlin wall the day a 47 year old Mikhail Gorbatchev was elected secretary to the Central Committee of The Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1978. I will immediately propose you as a candidate to The Grand Prix of fortuentellers.
