Languages

<p>Arctic will change more dramatically, report predicts</p>

Arctic Ice Melting

The Arctic is changing faster and contributing more to global climate change than scientists had previously predicted.

Location

The latest report from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme projects that the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in summer within the next three to four decades and global sea levels will rise by up to 1.6 m by the end of the century.

The report predicts more dramatic changes than what the UN predicted in 2007. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change placed the global sea level rise at 18 to 59cm by 2100.

The scientific body of the Arctic Council is convening in Copenhagen from May 4-6 to discuss its latest report on how the region will change this century. The report will also feature on the agenda at the upcoming Arctic Council ministerial meeting on May 12.

According to the study, multiyear sea ice, mountain glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland Ice Sheet, which were once considered fixtures in the Arctic, shrank faster in the past decade than in the previous one. Their meltwaters contributed more than 40% of the global sea level rise, which averaged at 3 mm per year, between 2003 and 2008.

Sea ice cover has reached record lows every year in the past decade and is “now about one third smaller than the average summer sea-ice cover from 1979 to 2000.” According to the report, the decreased sea ice cover offers opportunities for increased shipping traffic and industrial activity. However, “threats from icebergs may increase due to increased iceberg production.”

The International Maritime Organization, a UN body that sets security standards for shipping, is developing a mandatory code for cargo and passenger ships operating in polar regions. Current guidelines for shipping in the Arctic and Antarctic regions are recommendatory. An IMO representative says the report may be used to inform member states working on the mandatory code.

The AMAP report also states that permafrost temperatures, which normally range between -16 ° Celsius and just below freezing, have risen by up to 2° Celsius over the past three decades. In Russia and Canada, the southern boundary of permafrost cover is moving northward. For many northern regions, that will reduce access to ice roads and other infrastructure that relies on permafrost.

According to the report, Arctic residents can also expect wetter winters and drying summers. Average fall-winter temperatures are expected to increase by at least 3° Celsius by 2080 using even the most conservative estimates for greenhouse gas emissions. Although many regions in the Arctic will have deeper snow cover, with Siberia at the top of the list, the period of snow cover will decline by up to 20% by 2050.

These changes contribute to climate change by increasing heat absorption from the sun. That, in turn, will raise carbon dioxide and methane emissions and alter large-scale ocean currents. The report describes new ways in which changing Arctic ice and snow cover can feed back into climate change.

The interactions between warming air temperatures and ice cover have not yet been quantified, meaning scientists cannot yet measure the extent to which the Arctic is changing and contributing to global climate change.