The Norwegian Minister of Petroleum and Energy Terje Riis-Johansen presented the report with the new estimates at a news-conference in Oslo on Friday. The report is written by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD).
The geological mapping of the area outside Nordland and Troms counties in northern Norway were done in the period from 2007 – 2009. The seismic activity in the areas outside Lofoten has been a highly controversial question in Norway over the last years due to environmental fear that the seismic acquisition could harm the important fisheries.
The NPD has estimated the recoverable resources based on an analysis of play models. The report main findings are:
• Nordland VI appears to be the most prospective area for petroleum resources
• Nordland VII and Troms II have a total expected resource estimate which is about the same as what is expected in Nordland VI.
• The resource estimate for oil is larger than for gas in Nordland VI and VII. In Troms II, gas appears to be the most likely possibility.
The petroleum resources are expected to amount to 202 million Sm3 of oil equivalents, or about 1300 million barrels. The range of uncertainty in this resource estimate is expected to lie between 76 and 372 million Sm3 o.e. The figures refer to recoverable oil and gas.
The expected future net value is estimated at about NOK 500 billion (€60 billion). To highlight the added value of gradual exploration in the area, the NPD has also estimated the value using scenarios which reveal profitability that varies from NOK -10 billion to about NOK 1400 billion.
There is uncertainty associated with the estimate for the undiscovered resources. However, this uncertainty can be reduced over time, e.g. through staged exploration including the drilling of exploration wells, according to the press-release published by NPD.