The key issue in the report will be whether or not to open up for a consequence study on regional oil production. While leading representatives of the Labour Party favor a consequence study, the two coalition junior partners are strongly against.
If the Labor Party chooses to push through a decision in the issue, the Socialist Left Party has signaled that it will have to pull out of the coalition. A consequence study is seen as a first step of an industrial development of the resources.
The Lofoten issue has become a key challenge for the government, with the industrially-friendly Labor Party eager to open new promising areas to oil exploration on the one hand and the green-oriented Socialist Left Party and the Centre Party calling for protection of the vulnerable waters on the other.
On Wednesday this week, more than 1000 people rallied in front of the parliament building in Oslo calling for an oil ban in Lofoten.
Sources in the Labour Party now signal that Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg will choose not to take the issue further. The government coalition is more important than a Lofoten consequence study, they say to newspaper Dagbladet.
A compromise in the issue could eventually be that new and extended areas are made available to drilling in the Barents Sea. For now, that might satisfy the hungry oil industry, which already has signaled that it is ready to start exploring the promising areas in the newly delimited waters in the region.
Read also: Exploration in Barents Sea vs. in Lofoten
It also remains a question how long the environmentalists will be able to protect Lofoten. Afterall, the parliament majority today favors oil exploration in the area. A government takeover by the conservatives could therefore turn the picture and result in a green light for drilling.
Norway in 2006 adopted its management plan for the Barents Sea and the Lofoten waters. The plan opened up for exploration in parts of the Barents Sea, but banned drilling in the vulnerable and oil-rich Lofoten area. The revised plan, the draft of which will be presented in March or April, might change the situation and open the Lofoten waters, as well as vast new areas in the Norwegian and Barents Sea, for the oil industry.
