Russian authorities originally plan a growth of four percent for 2011. However, Dvorkovich now does not exclude that this might be too optimistic. According to a “negative scenario” from the presidential administration, economic growth in the country will in 2011 be only between 1,5-2 percent, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.
Dvorkovich says however that there is a “less than a 50 percent chance” that the negative scenario becomes the reality.
The statements from the powerful official come as a chill after several recent more positive forecasts. Deputy Minister of Economic Development Andrei Klepach for example only the previous week said growth would amount to 4,2 percent, and the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted a 4,6 percent Russian growth in 2011.
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However, Dvorkovich is supported by several analysts. Among them is Sergei Aleksashenko from the Higher School of Economics. He maintains that Russia’s main driver for economic growth – the export – is stagnating, while imports are increasing rapidly. This will eventually lead to higher inflation and possibly also social unrest, he says.
-The post-crisis revival of the Russian economy has come to a halt, the economist says. –No growth drivers are in sight and all hopes hinge on growth of oil prices, he adds.
